Current conflict-zone signals are compared against historical windows taken 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours before known past escalations. The output is a similarity score — how closely the present pattern resembles past pre-escalation periods — not a prediction of what happens next.
Each comparison uses explicit weighted dimensions (incident rate, event mix, severity, source activity). Every dimension shows its value, weight and contribution to the total score, with evidence notes so the reasoning can be audited.